The number of obsolete two-wheelers in Cambodia was estimated. The results are presented in Fig. 1. This study considered three scenarios where all two-wheelers imported to Cambodia from other countries would be used by first, second and third owners, in turn. That is, a random mixture of ownership generations was not considered here. For instance, the scenario description โImport (1st)+Domestic productionโ indicates estimation of the total number of obsolete two-wheelers that had been imported to Cambodia from other countries as new products as well as those produced domestically in Cambodia. 88 relationship between the number of possessions, demand and disposals. Cambodia is indicated by the following equation: where ๐ธโ is the number of two-wheelers which are demand existed in Cambodia in year t. ๐โฒโ is the number Cambodia in year t, and ๐โฒโ is the number of new domestically produced as a new product for which of new domestically produced two-wheelers owned in domestically produced two-wheelers which are discarded in Cambodia in year t. In this study, data from 2000 to 2019 obtained from research published by Honda (Wedge Holdings, 2017) were used for calculating the number of new two-wheelers domestically produced, representing demand in Cambodia in year t. end of life of a two-wheeler domestically produced in after the two-wheeler produced domestically is shipped. to 2019 using the PBM. 2020 would be on the same upward trend as that of Vietnam. Cambodia and Vietnam are in Southeast Asia and they have experienced a similar process of economic development with (Asian Development Bank, 2011). Since the outline of Vietnamโs Cambodia up to 2019 by the rate of increase in Vietnam obtained. 2.3.2 Two-wheelers Imported to Cambodia indicated by the following equation: where ๐นโ โ is the number of two-wheelers imported as ownership generation ๐ผ which represents the demand in G. MURAKAMI et al. year t, ๐"โ โ is the number of two-wheelers imported as ownership generation ๐ผ and owned in Cambodia in year t. ๐"โ โ is the number of two-wheelers, which are imported as ownership generation ๐ผ and discarded in Cambodia in year t. The number of two-wheelers imported from other countries which are discarded in Cambodia in year t is calculated by the following equation: (5) where ๐"โ โ ๐โ is the obsoletion rate of age i in which the and ๐ "โ โ ๐โ is the survival rate in year i after the imported two-wheeler is shipped. ๐ "โ โ ๐โ is calculated in Equation 4 in Section 2.2.3. Based on the data on ๐"โ and ๐นโ โ , ๐"โ from 2000 to 2019 is calculated using the PBM. produced two-wheelers, for ๐"โ after 2019, it is assumed Vietnam. ๐นโ โ โ โ after 2019 is calculated using the PBM based on the ๐"โ , and ๐"โ obtained. ๐โ โ ๐โฒโ โ ๐"โ โ end of life of two-wheelers imported in year t is reached, As pointed out above that the number of two-wheelers imported from other countries and owned in Cambodia will increase in the same way as the number of two-wheelers owned in (6)(7)The total number of two-wheelers discarded in year t is calculated by the following equation: Finally, this study estimated the number of obsolete two-wheelers to be generated in Cambodia by 2040. 3. Results To generalize, it is estimated that the number of obsolete two-wheelers in Cambodia will increase year by year in all three scenarios. The estimated number of obsolete two-wheelers drastically increases after 2020. This is because there was an abundance of two-wheelers imported in 2016, which have a great influence on the increase after 2020. (8)(9) (10)regarding domestically (11)The PBM is a model for estimating the flow of obsolete products by considering only the first owner. In this study, the existing PBM was modified to account for the different generations of owners. 2.3.1 New Two-wheelers Domestically Produced in The PBM for two-wheelers domestically produced in stable price movement The PBM for two-wheelers imported to Cambodia is Cambodia 2.3.3 Total Number of Discarded Two-wheelers in Cambodia โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ ๐"โ โ โ โ ๐นโ โ โ โ โ ๐"โ โ ๐โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ ๐"โ โ ๐โ โ ๐ "โ โ ๐โ 1โ โ ๐ "โ โ ๐โ โ โ โ ๐โฒโ โ ๐โฒโ โ โ โ ๐ธโ โ ๐โฒโ ๐โฒโ is calculated by the following equation: where ๐โฒโ โ ๐โ is the obsoletion rate of age i in which the year t is reached, and ๐ โฒโ โ ๐โ is the survival rate in year i ๐ โฒโ โ ๐โ is calculated in Equation 4 in Section 2.2.3. Based on the data on ๐โฒโ and ๐ธโ , ๐โฒโ is calculated from 2000 This study assumed that the ๐โฒโ of Cambodia after ๐โฒโ up to 2004 matches the outline of that of Cambodia up to 2019, ๐โฒโ is calculated by multiplying the ๐โฒโ of since 2004. The rate of increase in ๐โฒโ in Vietnam was estimated by Kurogi et al. (2021). ๐ธโ after 2020 is calculated using the PBM based on the ๐โฒโ , and ๐โฒโ , ๐โฒโ โ โ โ ๐ธโ โ โ โ ๐โฒโ โ ๐โ โ ๐โฒโ โ ๐โ โ ๐ โฒโ โ ๐โ 1โ โ ๐ โฒโ โ ๐โ ๐"โ โ โ ๐"โ โ โ โ โ ๐นโ โ โ ๐"โ โ
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