(car stock number in year Y) * (0.5%) 68 automobile spare parts. To estimate this, we estimated the materials breakdown of spare parts, and the quantities of spare parts traded in markets. Table 4 shows 11 types of automotive parts that are commonly traded as spare parts in markets. When an automotive part is broken, the driver can make a choice of repairing the part (repair), replacing the part with a brand-new one (new), replacing it with a remanufactured part (remanufacturing) or replacing it with a reused part (reuse). The 11 types of parts also represent the parts that are commonly remanufactured today in regions such as the US (Frost & Sullivan, 2011), EU (Bobba et al., 2021) and Japan (the authors’ study). The table shows the parts’ weight, parts’ steel content weight, and our estimates of the ratio of spare part demands (units) to car stock amounts (units). The weight of material used in these engines (total weight of the engines), and the weight of the steel used in the engines are calculated as follows, respectively: *Note: Estimated ratio of the annual demand for spare parts (units) to the number of automobiles-in-use (cars in stock). For example, “2%” indicates that when there are 100,000 cars in use, there will be demand for 2,000 units of spare parts per year. For the parts’ total weight and steel weight, we referred to data collected in the study by Tahara et al. (2001). Table 4 Top remanufactured automotive parts, their weight, steel content and demand per car in stock. Weight (kg) 135.0 4.5 2.5 5.8 102.5 7.6 5 6 5 6.6 1.9 Engines Alternators Starters AC compressors Transmissions Driveshafts Electronic units Clutches Brake calipers Steering gears Water pumps Fig. 1 Estimated flow and stock of automobiles, potential spare parts and related materials in Southeast Asia in 2030. These estimated ratios indicate spare engine demand units, for example, in year Y, and are calculated as follows: Spare part demand per car in stock*Steel (kg) 73.6 2.7 1.5 2.4 82.0 6.9 3 6 5 6.6 1.2 0.5% 2% 2% 2% 0.5% 2% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 0.5% 0.5% M. MATSUMOTO et al. (car stock number in year Y) * (0.5%) * 135.0 (kg), (car stock number in year Y) * (0.5%) * 73.6 (kg) We estimated the ratio (e.g., 0.5% for the engine) by referring to the estimated units of remanufactured parts sold in the EU (Bobba et al., 2021), the corresponding estimation in the US (Frost & Sullivan, 2011), and the authors’ interviews with personnel in the industry in Japan. In for example, 3.22 million units of remanufactured alternators (spare parts) were sold in 2012 (Bobba et al., 2021). The ratio to the car stock number in the EU that year (260.5 million) was 1.2%. We presumed the potential ratios would be larger in Southeast Asia because the average age of the cars in the region was higher than in the EU, US or Japan. We assumed the ratio would be higher by up to 70% in Southeast Asia. For alternators, we hypothetically estimated the ratio at 2% (Table 4). the EU, The car stocks in the years 2015 and 2030 in Southeast Asia were/will be 58.1 million (Table 1) and 90.0 million respectively. The potential demand figures for spare parts shown in Table 4 (11 types of parts) were calculated at 7.0 million and 10.8 million units, respectively. These have total weights of 101,000 tons and 157,000 tons, respectively. In addition to the 11 types of parts in Table 4, we also took other parts into account. The parts considered additionally were mainly exterior automotive parts such as doors, bonnets, lights, mirrors and so on. These parts are more like to be reused than remanufactured today. We include these parts in our account because the potential demand for remanufactured parts of these types does exist. We assumed that the total weight of demand for these parts would be the same as that for the 11 types of parts. Our results show the total weight of the demand for these spare parts to be 203,000 tons in 2015, and 314,000 tons in 2030. Of these amounts, steel accounts for 137,000 tons in 2015, and 213,000 tons in 2030. Figure 1 presents our estimates of the flow and stock of automobiles, spare parts and related materials for the year 2030. The demand for spare parts, or the ‘spare part demand per car in stock’ in Table 4, can vary from market (authors’ estimate),
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