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a Source: Population Reference Bureau https://www.prb.org/2020-world-population-data-sheet/ b Source: International Monetary Fund https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO c Source: (OICA, 2021a) f ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) comprises 10 member countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. In this paper, “ASEAN10” and “Southeast Asia” are used interchangeably. 66 more essential, even compared with recycling, because it can be more economically viable, more resource-efficient and less energy-intensive than recycling. Table 1 Basic economic indicators, automobiles and steel use in Southeast Asia and other regions. Vehicles in Although remanufacturing has attracted attention in recent years in academia, industry and government, it is not clear how much of an impact remanufacturing will have on material saving at the societal or macro level. The market remanufacturing have become gradually clearer in the last decade. The production of remanufactured goods in the US in 2011 was estimated at 43.0 billion USD (USITC, 2012), and in Europe, at 29.8 billion EUR (ERN, 2015), but again, the material-saving effects are not known. This study has attempted to estimate the potential contribution of automotive parts remanufacturing in Southeast Asia. impacts of The automobile industry in Southeast Asia, typically in Thailand, has developed through the attraction of foreign automobile manufacturers since the 1960s. Foreign automobile manufacturers have set up local factories, followed by which, foreign automotive parts manufacturers have also set up local factories. In recent years, local parts manufacturers have been growing. The number of parts manufacturers is largest in Thailand, followed by Indonesia and Malaysia (DBJ, 2015). This region has local parts manufacturers and potential for growth of the parts remanufacturing industry. The automotive Population in 2020 (millions) a Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam ASEAN10 f (global ratio) 271.7 32.8 109.6 5.8 66.5 96.2 662.0 (8.5%) 126.0 1410.6 329.9 447.0 7773 Japan China US EU27+UK Global d Source: (OICA, 2021b) parts sector is where remanufacturing is most actively conducted globally. This study has attempted to address whether the potential impact is on the order of 1%, or 0.1%, or 0.01% material saving in the Southeast Asian region. Clarifying the scale of impacts is the first step in arguing for the priority of measures and policies. GDP per Sales of new vehicles in capita in 2019 (USD current prices) b 4,200 11,210 3,510 65,640 7,820 3,420 4,940 40,800 10,240 65,250 46,590 11,540 M. MATSUMOTO et al. e Source: (World Steel Association, 2020) Vehicles in use in 2015 (thousand units) d 22,513 13,309 3,823 813 15,491 2,170 58,118 (4.5%) 77,404 162,845 264,194 294,213 1,282,270 2019 (thousand units) c 1,030 604 410 91 1,008 277 3,471 (3.8%) 5,195 25,797 17,037 17,896 90,424 The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Chapter 2 presents our estimation of the potential material-saving effects of automotive parts remanufacturing in Southeast Asia. The methods, assumptions, data and results of this estimation are presented. Chapter 3 discusses the market barriers to remanufacturing in the region. These barriers may of remanufactured products and companies’ hesitation to undertake remanufacturing. The final chapter discusses the results and concludes the study. include We estimated the potential material-saving effects of automotive parts remanufacturing in Southeast Asia in the year 2030 using the following procedures: 1) The materials breakdown of an automobile was estimated. 2) The amounts of flow (annual sales) and stock (products in use) of automobiles in the region in 2030 were estimated. Based on that and the materials breakdown per automobile estimated in (1), the material usage for automobiles in the region in 2030 was estimated. 3) The demand for spare parts stock per car, and the materials breakdown of spare parts were estimated. Based on those estimations and car stock estimated in (2), the material use for spare parts was estimated. 4) The material-saving effects of automotive parts remanufacturing at the product level were estimated, consumers’ Steel use in use per 1000 2019 (thousand metric tons, crude steel equivalent) e inhabitants in 2015 d 87 439 38 145 228 23 88 19,140 10,706 11,697 2,899 21,416 27,318 93,176 (4.9%) 69,782 947,519 108,500 172,437 1,888,890 609 118 821 581 182 non-acceptance Steel use per capita in 2019 (kg crude steel equivalent) e 71 335 108 499 308 283 140 550 659 330 336 245 2.1 Estimation Method 2. Potential Material-saving Effects of Automotive Parts Remanufacturing in Southeast Asia

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