that achieve the predefined SCP goal (i.e., halving CO2 emissions in 2050 from the BaU scenario). Although the focus of this paper was on SCP, the proposed method could be applied to any discussion on sustainability. We obtained some important insights into the quantification process when comparing the results of the experimental workshops. We proposed a workshop-based method Table 4 Comparison of quantification methods in participatory backcasting. Scenario title Goals to be achieved Purpose of using workshops First, the scenario designers’ preparation of tentative input parameter values and rationales helped the experts determine the input parameter values for 2050. This is because it was smoother to start a discussion on whether suggested values were convincing or not, rather than determining input parameter values from scratch. Before running workshops, it is important to gather a sufficient amount of information related to various SCP measures described in the target scenario in a local context (e.g., in Southeast Asia) to facilitate discussions among the participants. The gathered information can be used in formulating rationales to decide input parameter values. Second, having the scenario designers raise the discussion points leads to reduced time required for quantification by guiding the discussion among the participants. Third, separating the roles of the scenario designers into facilitator and model operator (technical support staff) is helpful the narrative scenarios during two-hour workshops based on experts’ discussions. toward efficiently quantifying Table 4 compares three methods for quantifying narrative scenarios using a participatory backcasting approach. The originality of the proposed method is to provide a formal process for conducting workshop-based quantification aiming to obtain plausible sets of parameter values. When compared with the quantification processes by Vita et al. (2019) and Uwasu et al. (2020), our method focuses more on interactions with workshop participants to obtain direct feedback by asking them to give rationales for determining parameter values. One characteristic of the proposed method is to quantify narrative scenarios based on participants’ discussions under workshops’ strict time constraints (e.g., two hours per workshop). In the proposed method, however, some problems remain to be further addressed. One problem is that the Sustainable consumption and production in Southeast Asian countries in 2050To halve energy and resource consumption compared with that in the BaU scenario To determine a plausible set of parameter values to achieve predefined goals based on narrative scenarios The quantification process was formalized as illustrated in Fig. 1. While the scenario designers chose discussion points and simulation models used, workshop participants (experts) determined the parameter values to achieve predefined goals based on their discussions. Scenario designers and experts Quantification process Participants Proposed method Quantify Backcasting Scenario with Workshop possible range of quantification (e.g., which parameters are considered at a workshop) is limited because the scenario designers choose the discussion points and pre-developed simulation models in advance of the workshops. To deal with this limitation, in Phase 1, the scenario designers need to choose discussion points carefully that are critical to achieving the predetermined goals. Another problem of how the proposed method would support policy design for SCP has not yet been examined. Therefore, real-world stakeholders (e.g., policy makers) in the scenario design process, including the quantification process, will be needed in further research. For example, combining participatory backcasting with a gamification approach shows a potential to motivate workshop participants’ action in a participatory backcasting process (Mandujano et al., 2021). The case study shown in this paper invited experts only, but it would be ideal to involve local stakeholders as well. One future to have both researchers and stakeholders involved in testing the proposed methods. towards visions created task will be important to establish discussion points in advance. Tentative Separating the role of scenario designer into facilitator and model operator assists smooth discussion. Future work will include applying this process to other scenarios involving real-world stakeholders to further test the method. Vita et al. (2019) Sustainable lifestyles in European countries in 2030To reduce footprintssuch as water or land. To develop visions in narrative format With an input-output model, the research team performed quantification based on narrative visions which were developed at stakeholder workshops. No feedback was provided by the workshop participants to the quantification results. Scenario designers, experts, and stakeholders engaging more input parameter values and Sustainable energy vision fora city in Japan in 2050 To reduce CO2 emissions by 70% in2050 compared with those in 1990 To develop visions and pathways in narrative format, To determine plausible input parameters to achieve predefined goals based on narrative scenariosWorkshop participants (citizens)performed quantification, but the plausibility of the chosen parameter values was not discussed or confirmed during the workshop. Scenario designers and stakeholdersUwasu et al. (2020) for quantifying narrative scenarios based on the concept of participatory backcasting. To develop the method, we conducted a literature review and held experimental workshops. To verify the effectiveness of our method, we quantified a narrative scenario in Vietnam using expert workshops. Through the experimental workshops and the case study, we gained the following insights: To reduce time spent on quantification workshops, it is rationales prepared by the scenario designers facilitate discussion during the workshop. 29 6. Conclusions
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