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3.2 Quantification Method for Pre-defined Narrative  Developing or selecting a simulation model for to make  Providing tentative input values and their rationales for the simulation model to stimulate discussion among the participants.  Providing key discussion points to focus on to facilitate To deal with the first problem, we presume that, when setting input parameter values for scenarios, scenario designers need to prepare tentative parameter values and the rationales for them in advance of workshop. Here, rationales are developed mainly based on external information, such as future forecasting reports or statistical reports gathered by the scenario designers. The scenario designers explain these parameter values and their rationales at the workshop to the participants. To deal with the second and third problems, the scenario designers prepare key discussion points considering storylines of the scenario and sensitivity analyses of input parameters. They also divide the role of scenario designer at quantification workshops between a facilitator and a technical assistant, who is responsible for running the model. Therefore, it is preferable to involve at least two scenario designers. Fig. 1 gives an overview of (Steps 1–3 in Fig. 1) Before running workshops, the scenario designers do some preparatory work for quantifying the narrative scenarios, which includes:  Clarifying the problem definition for quantifying narrative scenarios (e.g., scenario to be quantified, goals to be achieved, time horizon, target region, and target products) the workshop participants. to quantifying quantification results more convincing. narrative the Scenarios We developed a quantification method to address the problems found in the experimental workshops (see Section 3.1.3). Fig. 1 Scenario quantification procedure using participatory backcasting (updated from Onozuka et al. (2021)). Quantify Backcasting Scenario with Workshop the proposed quantification process. A workshop is combined with back-office work done by the scenario designers to make quantification during the workshop more effective and efficient. The process is composed of three phases and each phase includes one or more steps. Phase 1. Workshop preparation by the scenario designers share with scenario workshop efficiency. Here, we presume that the storyline of the narrative scenario to be quantified has already been developed in advance of quantification. Phase 2. Discussion by workshop participants (Steps 5 The workshop participants first check the results of quantification with tentative input parameter values suggested by the scenario designers. The participants then discuss the validity of the suggested input parameter values and the results to modify and determine new input values and their rationales. In this phase, the participants mainly focus on the discussion points suggested by the scenario designers, but the participants can add more discussion points as they need. Phase 3. Review and modification (Step 7 in Fig. 1) After the workshop in Phase 2, the scenario designers set the input values and quantify the narrative scenario. The scenario designers may share the quantification results with the participants to have them review the quantification results. Steps 5–7 are reiterated until the participants are satisfied with the quantification results. In cases where the participants suggest modifying the simulation model or request additional information to make quantification convincing, the scenario designers need to conduct part of the preparatory work for Phase 1 again. To demonstrate the proposed method, we organized for two online workshops. The quantification of narrative scenarios (around 1.5 hours) and the second one was for the workshop participants to review the quantification (around half an hour). Three experts from engineering and economics were invited to the workshop as participants. Two scenario designers were assigned to the first workshop, one to act as a facilitator and the other as a model operator. A scenario in Vietnam developed by members of the PECoP-Asia Project was quantified. The scenario assumed that the key measure to attain SCP would be sharing services to mitigate environmental impacts, while the predetermined goal was to halve CO2 emissions in 2050 compared with and 6 in Fig. 1) first one was 27 4. Case Study 4.1 Overview

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