24 vision) and then looks backwards from the vision to the present to connect the gap between them (Dreborg, 1996; Vergragt & Quist, 2011). In participatory backcasting, workshops are usually used to describe a sustainable vision in a narrative format. Table 1 Example of SCP narrative scenarios (not exhaustive) (Kishita et al., 2019). Title A: BICS Society (BICS: Business-Individual-Customer-Sharing) B: Beauty is only skin deep C: Infrastructure innovation 2.0 Based on the concept of participatory backcasting, the scenario design process developed in the PECoP-Asia project consists of the following two steps (Kishita et al., 2018): 1. Describe future endpoints (i.e., visions) that achieve SCP and pathways to connect with those visions, presenting taking into account the regional characteristics of Southeast Asia. 2. Quantify narrative scenarios (i.e., stories describing visions and pathways) to test if the scenarios achieve the predetermined goals (e.g., carbon neutrality in 2050) from an environmental viewpoint. Note that the above steps should be iterative to develop plausible scenarios. These steps are executed at expert workshops to enhance collection of diversified knowledge and views on SCP for Southeast Asia. them in narrative format In the project, the authors described narrative scenarios at the expert workshops (Step 1) as shown in Table 1 (Kishita et al., 2019). Based on the experts’ discussions in the scenario design process, various measures to achieve SCP came to light, such as sharing, remanufacturing and recycling. The focus of this paper is on Step 2, but the problem is that it is not easy to reflect participants’ knowledge and opinions sufficiently in the scenario quantification process, particularly when determining plausible values of parameters in a simulation model. This is because no systematized methods for quantifying backcasting scenarios in narrative format are available. Quantification is based on experts’ knowledge, which tends to be implicit and not easily transferrable to other cases (e.g., Uwasu et al., 2020; Vita et al., 2019). To make quantitative scenario creation based on predefined narratives more efficient, we formulated the research question of this study as “How should narrative scenario quantification processes using participatory backcasting be developed and facilitated, particularly in an SCP context?” To address this question, we aimed to develop a workshop-based method for undertaking quantitative expression of backcasting scenarios in narrative format. We assumed that workshop participants using our method would be experts such as researchers because diverse expertise is needed in SCP. In this paper, Because sharing services are already popular, B2B leasing and B2C sharing are widely used. Some people become prosumers to satisfy individual needs. Products are designed by coupling a generalized part and customized part. Because Vietnamese people like new products, customization services are provided using augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR). Sharing and replacement is accelerated by visualizing information for consumers. An authorization scheme is introduced to improve repair skills in local industry. S. ONOZUKA et al. we develop this method by taking an experimental approach, i.e., prototyping and revising the quantification process using SCP narrative scenarios, which are described by the authors in PECoP-Asia (Kishita et al., 2019). The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 provides a literature review of participatory backcasting and explains the problems of quantification of narrative scenarios using participatory backcasting. Chapter 3 proposes a method for quantifying narratives in an SCP context. Chapter 4 presents a case study to demonstrate the proposed method using a narrative scenario the effectiveness and challenges of the proposed method based on case study results. Chapter 6 concludes this paper. Participatory backcasting, which is a normative approach to foresight using desirable or alternative futures involving experts or stakeholders, has grown into an adequate approach to explore system innovations and transitions towards sustainability (Quist et al., 2011). There is an increasing number of scenario projects using participatory backcasting in various domains, such as household heating (Doyle & Davis 2013), SCP (Kishita et al., 2019), and (Quist & Vergragt 2006). Methodologies for participatory backcasting also have been developed based on such case studies. For example, Quist et al. (2011) proposed a five-step process for participatory backcasting, including strategic problem orientation; future vision development; backcasting analysis; future alternative elaboration and follow-up agenda definition; and embedding of the results and agenda, and follow-up stimulation, (Quist, 2007; Quist et al., 2011). Nikolakins (2020) analyzed how participatory backcasting enabled communities to produce a range of normative scenarios. As mentioned above, many researchers have paid attention to participatory backcasting. Most of them focus on creating narrative scenarios to describe sustainable visions. On the other hand, narrative scenarios must be quantified towards sustainability such as policymaking. This quantification helps to clarify the gap between sustainable visions and for Vietnam. Chapter 5 discusses food for supporting decision-making Storyline 2.1 Participatory Backcasting for Sustainability 2. Literature Review
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