Global_Environmental_Research_Vol.25No1&2
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As stated in Goal 12 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), much attention has been paid to sustainable consumption and production (SCP), which refers to the use of services and related products to bring a better quality of life while minimizing the use of natural resources (UNEP, 2015). To clarify the desirable linkage between consumers and producers, a five-year research project and Evaluation to Ensure Sustainable Consumption and Production Patterns in Asian Region (PECoP-Asia) was established (PECoP-Asia, 2016).” The focus was on 1School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan 3Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization, 2Advanced Manufacturing Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1. Introduction Key words: backcasting, scenario design, scenario quantification, sustainable consumption and production, More attention has been paid to sustainable consumption and production (SCP) to explore the desirable linkage between consumers and producers for sustainability. To envision SCP, the authors have developed a workshop-based method for designing backcasting scenarios. The idea is to incorporate expertise, opinions and local knowledge that experts and stakeholders have into the scenario design process. While scenarios are generally described in narrative format, it is necessary to quantify described scenarios to examine how to bridge the gap between the current situation and predetermined goals for SCP. However, it is not easy to quantify backcasting scenarios because there are no systematized methods available in existing studies. This paper thus aims to develop a workshop-based process for undertaking a quantitative evaluation of backcasting scenarios in narrative format. To develop the quantification process, we conducted a literature review and held experimental workshops. Making scenario quantification feasible and efficient during the workshop, the scenario designers deal with the following two things before the workshop – (1) setting tentative input values and the rationales for them and (2) suggesting discussion points in quantification workshops. In a case study, we evaluated one of the described scenarios for Vietnam, inviting experts to discuss it. The SCP goal was assumed to halve CO2 emissions related to passenger cars in 2050 from the level of the Business-as-Usual (BaU) scenario. Through the workshop, the experts reached a consensus on the quantification results, which showed that the CO2 emissions were reduced 60% when half of car users shared a car with 10 users. workshop (2016–2020) “Policy Design called Southeast Asia because resource and energy consumption is projected to increase drastically in response to future economic growth (Bao et al., 2017). Through this project, the authors developed a method for designing scenarios using participatory backcasting to envision SCP, which is far different from our current state of society (Kishita et al., 2019). Participatory backcasting aims to envisage and explore system innovations and transitions by inviting stakeholders and/or experts to include various knowledge, values, and opinions in backcasting processes, usually to address sustainability problems (Quist et al., 2011). Backcasting first defines a desirable future endpoint (i.e., 2021 AIRIES 23 Global Environmental Research 25/2021: 023–030 printed in Japan 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki 305-8564, Japan 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545, Japan *E-mail: kishita@pe.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp Abstract Sota ONOZUKA1, Yusuke KISHITA1*, Mitsutaka MATSUMOTO2, Michikazu KOJIMA3 An Approach to Quantifying Narrative Scenarios for Sustainable Consumption and Production Using Participatory Backcasting and Yasushi UMEDA1

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