4.1 Envisioning and Developing Scenario-based Application of “envisioning” can be seen in the attempt by Kamei et al. (2021a) the socio-economic impact of rapid urbanization and possible pathways of sustainable urban development for the long-term future of Bhutan. This approach was originally applied future urban development scenarios for Tokyo (Kamei et al., 2021b). Kamei et al. applied a qualitative analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for climate change scenario analysis in urban settings. For that purpose, they tried to incorporate the urban context, such as urban planning, spatial analysis, historical/cultural background and detailed urban infrastructure engineering elements, including urban form, buildings and transportation modes. In addition, a stakeholder consultation process was implemented to gain a deeper understanding of the local context. The socio-economic scenario analysis in their study in Bhutan (SSPs Bhutan) proposes decentralized development, conservation of local resources and cultural assets in contrast to the business-as-usual case, where the population influx into the city continues. By utilizing the nine indicators of Bhutan’s gross national happiness (GNH) as well as urban planning factors related to quality of life, such as differences in access to infrastructure, energy systems and services between urban and rural areas, the study compared different implications for future development patterns in the different scenarios. to envisioning The study showed that urbanization will drive the construction of new urban infrastructure by increasing demand due to the influence of social factors such as education and employment. The study suggests that recent trends the social disparities between urban and rural areas. Future projections based on some empirical analyses using existing literature and local experiences can support local-specific strategies for sustainable transition, thereby in urbanization may exacerbate Narratives One of the most important pillars for EnBPM is “envisioning” as a creative process in social-technical system design for sustainability. For example, the direction of long-term changes in urban infrastructure and lifestyles is often difficult to imagine from the form of workshops among stakeholders alone. Thus, envisioning is crucial as a process for developing a concrete image and road-map, and for generating evidence of the social/economic and technological impacts of achieving these long-term goals in specific local/national contexts. This envisioning process can be supported and facilitated by multi-stakeholder dialogues involving science and policy interactions such as scenario development, modeling analysis and stakeholders’ dialogues. It is vital to have a process for co-designing sustainable lifestyles through consensus on changes for infrastructure and business for maintaining or increasing the well-being of a society as a whole. SCP Policy Design for Socio-technical System Change to analyze also increasing the local quality of the living environment and mitigating the emerging social risks associated with ongoing rapid urbanization and socio-technical transition. Another For example, the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)conducted a study including social experimentation on how macro-level goal-setting for decarbonization (1.5 degree target) could be achieved at the urban and consumer levels by indexing lifecycle environmental impacts (IGES et al., 2019). The 1.5 degree lifestyle agenda has a systematic nature based on interdependence among consumer habits, markets, services, technologies and social rules. Bringing about changes in consumer behavior requires three elements: motivation/intention, and opportunity. For consumers to overcome obstacles and smoothly transition to a 1.5-degree lifestyle, it is essential that different stakeholders, such as national and local governments, producers and companies, citizens and civil society organizations (CSOs), play their respective roles and co-create societal visions and lifestyle changes. In particular, the government needs to review existing regulations, indicators for monitoring progress towards goals and transition management to avoid lock-ins. Governments also need to provide infrastructure for sustainable choices, motivate citizens and the business sector to take action, and provide feedback. The business sector must offer innovative products and services and related new business models. Citizens may make sustainable choices, work with governments and businesses to develop products and services and engage in grassroots efforts and dissemination activities in communities, workplaces and schools. The study aimed at identifying challenges and opportunities for realizing macro policy goals at the micro level. Based on the current footprint of the city and consumer segment and the calculated effectiveness of reducing environmental impacts through lifestyle changes, the study tried to extract options at the living level toward the 1.5 degree target (Koide et al., 2021). It also engaged important pillar of EnBPM as transition a way transcending ability is social experimentation. It is not yet clear how society will look after achieving those goals. Thus, social experimentation can be instrumental in examining the effectiveness of different policy options in different social contexts. Social experimentation can also generate evidence of benefits and challenges to achieving these goals in a real setting. It can also generate a narrative for encouraging different stakeholders to contribute their actions and support for a sustainable transform socio-technical systems. Social experiments can motivate citizens and improve their implementation capacity. They open a window for discussing co-creation of a new lifestyle the boundaries of citizens, companies and governments. to 19 4.2 Social Experimentation
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